Elevation‐Dependent Warming Over the Tibetan Plateau From an Ensemble of CORDEX‐EA Regional Climate Simulations

Under the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments-East Asia (CORDEX-EA-II), outputs from two regional climate models (RCMs) driven by four global (GCMs) are used to investigate characteristics and possible mechanisms of projected elevation-dependent warming (EDW) over Tibetan Plateau (TP) under Representative Concentration Pathway emission scenario 8.5 (RCP8.5). Results show that widespread TP is with considerable disagreements in intensity maximum center among RCMs. The largest spread surface air temperature (Tas) projections found above 5,000 m, indicating a large uncertainty exists higher elevations. A marked EDW signal simulated RCP multi-RCM ensemble mean for all seasons, particularly autumn. Based on analysis energy budget, it albedo feedback (SAF) primary contributor acts as main source downward longwave radiation (DLW) be dominant factor regulating Tas change TP, its contribution model-dependent. Furthermore, structure magnitude sensitive RCM physics driving GCM, they can alter snow cover albedo, which modulate SAF effect EDW. Additionally, RegCM4 shows sensitivity anthropogenic greenhouse forcing than WRF, evidenced larger stronger RegCM4.